Efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in mainland Tanzania, 2018.

BACKGROUND: The use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is recommended by the World Health Organization for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely adopted first-line ACT for uncomplicated malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including mainland Tanzania, where it was introduced in December 2006. The WHO recommends regular assessment to monitor the efficacy of the first-line treatment specifically considering that artemisinin partial resistance was reported in Greater Mekong sub-region and has been confirmed in East Africa (Rwanda and Uganda). The main aim of this study was to assess the efficacy and safety of AL for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in mainland Tanzania. METHODS: A single-arm prospective anti-malarial drug efficacy trial was conducted in Kibaha, Mlimba, Mkuzi, and Ujiji (in Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga, and Kigoma regions, respectively) in 2018. The sample size of 88 patients per site was determined based on WHO 2009 standard protocol. Participants were febrile patients (documented axillary temperature ≥ 37.5 °C and/or history of fever during the past 24 h) aged 6 months to 10 years. Patients received a 6-dose AL regimen by weight twice a day for 3 days. Clinical and parasitological parameters were monitored during 28 days of follow-up to evaluate the drug efficacy and safety. RESULTS: A total of 653 children were screened for uncomplicated malaria and 349 (53.7%) were enrolled between April and August 2018. Of the enrolled children, 345 (98.9%) completed the 28 days of follow-up or attained the treatment outcomes. There were no early treatment failures, but recurrent infections were higher in Mkuzi (35.2%) and Ujiji (23%). By Kaplan-Meier analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) uncorrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) ranged from 63.4% in Mkuzi to 85.9% in Mlimba, while PCR-corrected ACPR on day 28 varied from 97.6% in Ujiji to 100% in Mlimba. The drug was well tolerated; the commonly reported adverse events were cough, runny nose, and abdominal pain. No serious adverse event was reported. CONCLUSION: This study showed that AL had adequate efficacy and safety for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. The high number of recurrent infections were mainly due to new infections, indicating the necessity of utilizing alternative artemisinin-based combinations, such as artesunate amodiaquine, which provide a significantly longer post-treatment prophylactic effect.

Microsatellites reveal high polymorphism and high potential for use in anti-malarial efficacy studies in areas with different transmission intensities in mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania is currently implementing therapeutic efficacy studies (TES) in areas of varying malaria transmission intensities as per the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations. In TES, distinguishing reinfection from recrudescence is critical for the determination of anti-malarial efficacy. Recently, the WHO recommended genotyping polymorphic coding genes, merozoite surface proteins 1 and 2 (msp1 and msp2), and replacing the glutamate-rich protein (glurp) gene with one of the highly polymorphic microsatellites in Plasmodium falciparum to adjust the efficacy of antimalarials in TES. This study assessed the polymorphisms of six neutral microsatellite markers and their potential use in TES, which is routinely performed in Tanzania. METHODS: Plasmodium falciparum samples were obtained from four TES sentinel sites, Kibaha (Pwani), Mkuzi (Tanga), Mlimba (Morogoro) and Ujiji (Kigoma), between April and September 2016. Parasite genomic DNA was extracted from dried blood spots on filter papers using commercial kits. Genotyping was done using six microsatellites (Poly-α, PfPK2, TA1, C3M69, C2M34 and M2490) by capillary method, and the data were analysed to determine the extent of their polymorphisms and genetic diversity at the four sites. RESULTS: Overall, 83 (88.3%) of the 94 samples were successfully genotyped (with positive results for ≥ 50.0% of the markers), and > 50.0% of the samples (range = 47.6-59.1%) were polyclonal, with a mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) ranging from 1.68 to 1.88 among the four sites. There was high genetic diversity but limited variability among the four sites based on mean allelic richness (RS = 7.48, range = 7.27-8.03, for an adjusted minimum sample size of 18 per site) and mean expected heterozygosity (He = 0.83, range = 0.80-0.85). Cluster analysis of haplotypes using STRUCTURE, principal component analysis, and pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) did not reveal population structure or clustering of parasites according to geographic origin. Of the six markers, Poly-α was the most polymorphic, followed by C2M34, TA1 and C3M69, while M2490 was the least polymorphic. CONCLUSION: Microsatellite genotyping revealed high polyclonality and genetic diversity but no significant population structure. Poly-α, C2M34, TA1 and C3M69 were the most polymorphic markers, and Poly-α alone or with any of the other three markers could be adopted for use in TES in Tanzania.

Trends of Plasmodium falciparum molecular markers associated with resistance to artemisinins and reduced susceptibility to lumefantrine in Mainland Tanzania from 2016 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic efficacy studies (TESs) and detection of molecular markers of drug resistance are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to monitor the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). This study assessed the trends of molecular markers of artemisinin resistance and/or reduced susceptibility to lumefantrine using samples collected in TES conducted in Mainland Tanzania from 2016 to 2021. METHODS: A total of 2,015 samples were collected during TES of artemether-lumefantrine at eight sentinel sites (in Kigoma, Mbeya, Morogoro, Mtwara, Mwanza, Pwani, Tabora, and Tanga regions) between 2016 and 2021. Photo-induced electron transfer polymerase chain reaction (PET-PCR) was used to confirm presence of malaria parasites before capillary sequencing, which targeted two genes: Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 propeller domain (k13) and P. falciparum multidrug resistance 1 (pfmdr1). RESULTS: Sequencing success was ≥ 87.8%, and 1,724/1,769 (97.5%) k13 wild-type samples were detected. Thirty-seven (2.1%) samples had synonymous mutations and only eight (0.4%) had non-synonymous mutations in the k13 gene; seven of these were not validated by the WHO as molecular markers of resistance. One sample from Morogoro in 2020 had a k13 R622I mutation, which is a validated marker of artemisinin partial resistance. For pfmdr1, all except two samples carried N86 (wild-type), while mutations at Y184F increased from 33.9% in 2016 to about 60.5% in 2021, and only four samples (0.2%) had D1246Y mutations. pfmdr1 haplotypes were reported in 1,711 samples, with 985 (57.6%) NYD, 720 (42.1%) NFD, and six (0.4%) carrying minor haplotypes (three with NYY, 0.2%; YFD in two, 0.1%; and NFY in one sample, 0.1%). Between 2016 and 2021, NYD decreased from 66.1% to 45.2%, while NFD increased from 38.5% to 54.7%. CONCLUSION: This is the first report of the R622I (k13 validated mutation) in Tanzania. N86 and D1246 were nearly fixed, while increases in Y184F mutations and NFD haplotype were observed between 2016 and 2021. Despite the reports of artemisinin partial resistance in Rwanda and Uganda, this study did not report any other validated mutations in these study sites in Tanzania apart from R622I suggesting that intensified surveillance is urgently needed to monitor trends of drug resistance markers and their impact on the performance of ACT.

Community knowledge, attitude, practices and beliefs associated with persistence of malaria transmission in North-western and Southern regions of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant decline in the past two decades, malaria is still a major public health concern in Tanzania; with over 93% of the population still at risk. Community knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP), and beliefs are key in enhancing uptake and utilization of malaria control interventions, but there is a lack of information on their contribution to effective control of the disease. This study was undertaken to determine KAP and beliefs of community members and service providers on malaria, and how they might be associated with increased risk and persistence of the disease burden in North-western and Southern regions of Tanzania. METHODS: This was an exploratory study that used qualitative methods including 16 in-depth interviews (IDI) and 32 focus group discussions (FGDs) to collect data from health service providers and community members, respectively. The study was conducted from September to October 2017 and covered 16 villages within eight districts from four regions of mainland Tanzania (Geita, Kigoma, Mtwara and Ruvuma) with persistently high malaria transmission for more than two decades. RESULTS: Most of the participants had good knowledge of malaria and how it is transmitted but some FGD participants did not know the actual cause of malaria, and thought that it is caused by bathing and drinking un-boiled water, or consuming contaminated food that has malaria parasites without warming it. Reported barriers to malaria prevention and control (by FGD and IDI participants) included shortage of qualified health workers, inefficient health financing, low care-seeking behaviour, consulting traditional healers, use of local herbs to treat malaria, poverty, increased breeding sites by socio-economic activities and misconceptions related to the use of bed nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Among the misconceptions, some participants believed that bed nets provided for free by the government came with bedbugs while others reported that free bed nets caused impotence among men. CONCLUSION: Despite good knowledge of malaria, several risk factors, such as socio-economic and behavioural issues, and misconceptions related to the use of bed nets and IRS were reported. Other key factors included unavailability or limited access to health services, poor health financing and economic activities that potentially contributed to persistence of malaria burden in these regions. Relevant policies and targeted malaria interventions, focusing on understanding socio-cultural factors, should be implemented to reduce and finally eliminate the disease in the study regions and others with persistent transmission.

Performance of antigen detection for HRP2-based malaria rapid diagnostic tests in community surveys: Tanzania, July-November 2017.

BACKGROUND: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on the detection of the Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) antigen are widely used for detection of active infection with this parasite and are the only practical malaria diagnostic test in some endemic settings. External validation of RDT results from field surveys can confirm appropriate RDT performance. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted between July and November 2017 enrolling participants of all ages in households from 15 villages in four border regions of Tanzania: Geita, Kigoma, Mtwara and Ruvuma. All participants had an RDT performed in the field and provided a blood sample for later laboratory multiplex antigen detection of HRP2. In assessing the continuous HRP2 levels in participant blood versus RDT result, dose-response logistic regression provided quantitative estimates for HRP2 limit of detection (LOD). RESULTS: From the 15 study villages, 6941 persons were enrolled that had a RDT at time of enrollment and provided a DBS for later laboratory antigen detection. RDT positive prevalence for the HRP2 band by village ranged from 20.0 to 43.6%, but the magnitude of this prevalence did not have an effect on the estimated LOD of RDTs utilized in different villages. Overall, HRP2 single-target tests had a lower LOD at the 95% probability of positive RDT (4.3 ng/mL; 95% CI 3.4-5.4) when compared to pLDH/HRP2 dual target tests (5.4 ng/mL; 4.5-6.3), though this difference was not significant. With the exception of one village, all other 14 villages (93.3%) showed RDT LOD estimates at 90% probability of positive RDT between 0.5 and 12.0 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Both HRP2-only and pLDH/HRP2 combo RDTs utilized in a 2017 Tanzania cross-sectional survey of border regions generally performed well, and reliably detected HRP2 antigen in the low ng/mL range. Though single target tests had lower levels of HRP2 detection, both tests were within similar ranges among the 15 villages. Comparison of quantitative HRP2 detection limits among study sites can help interpret RDT testing results when generating population prevalence estimates for malaria infection.

Sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania: simulation of the impact of strata-specific intervention combinations using modelling.

BACKGROUND: To accelerate progress against malaria in high burden countries, a strategic reorientation of resources at the sub-national level is needed. This paper describes how mathematical modelling was used in mainland Tanzania to support the strategic revision that followed the mid-term review of the 2015-2020 national malaria strategic plan (NMSP) and the epidemiological risk stratification at the council level in 2018. METHODS: Intervention mixes, selected by the National Malaria Control Programme, were simulated for each malaria risk strata per council. Intervention mixes included combinations of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN), indoor residual spraying, larval source management, and intermittent preventive therapies for school children (IPTsc). Effective case management was either based on estimates from the malaria indicator survey in 2016 or set to a hypothetical target of 85%. A previously calibrated mathematical model in OpenMalaria was used to compare intervention impact predictions for prevalence and incidence between 2016 and 2020, or 2022. RESULTS: For each malaria risk stratum four to ten intervention mixes were explored. In the low-risk and urban strata, the scenario without a ITN mass campaign in 2019, predicted high increase in prevalence by 2020 and 2022, while in the very-low strata the target prevalence of less than 1% was maintained at low pre-intervention transmission intensity and high case management. In the moderate and high strata, IPTsc in addition to existing vector control was predicted to reduce the incidence by an additional 15% and prevalence by 22%. In the high-risk strata, all interventions together reached a maximum reduction of 76%, with around 70% of that reduction attributable to high case management and ITNs. Overall, the simulated revised NMSP was predicted to achieve a slightly lower prevalence in 2020 compared to the 2015-2020 NMSP (5.3% vs 6.3%). CONCLUSION: Modelling supported the choice of intervention per malaria risk strata by providing impact comparisons of various alternative intervention mixes to address specific questions relevant to the country. The use of a council-calibrated model, that reproduces local malaria trends, represents a useful tool for compiling available evidence into a single analytical platform, that complement other evidence, to aid national programmes with decision-making processes.

Evaluation of long-lasting insecticidal net distribution through schools in Southern Tanzania.

Universal coverage with effective vector control remains the mainstay of malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa. Tanzania has utilized a number of mechanisms for the maintenance of long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) coverage over time. Schools have been identified as one potential channel for continuous distribution of LLIN. This research aims to evaluate an annual school-based LLIN distribution programme in Tanzania that began in 2013, called the School Net Programme (SNP). Following each of the first four rounds of SNP distribution, a household survey was conducted in intervention and comparison districts in Southern and Lake zones of Tanzania (N = 5083 households). Measures of ownership, access and use were compared between intervention and comparison districts. Determinants of reach were assessed in intervention districts. Population access to an LLIN increased from 63.1% (95% CI: 58.8, 67.5) to 76.5% (95% CI: 72.9, 80.0) in the intervention districts between the first and last surveys. Access also rose in the comparison districts from 51.4% (95% CI: 46.9, 55.9) to 79.8% (95% CI: 77.3, 82.0) following mass distribution and implementation of school-based distribution during the study period. LLIN use increased in intervention districts from 44.9% (95% CI: 40.5, 49.3) to 65.6% (95% CI: 59.4, 71.8) and from 57.2% (95% CI: 49.7, 64.7) to 77.4% (95% CI: 69.3, 85.5) specifically amongst primary school-aged children. Households reached by the SNP were wealthier households with children enrolled in school. The SNP in Tanzania was able to maintain population level LLIN ownership, use and access in the absence of mass distribution. The SNP successfully reached households that housed school-aged children. Alternative delivery strategies may need to be considered to reach households without children enrolled in schools that experienced fewer benefits from the programme.

The consequences of declining population access to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on net use patterns and physical degradation of nets after 22 months of ownership.

BACKGROUND: As insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) wear out and are disposed, some household members are prioritized to use remaining ITNs. This study assessed how nets are allocated within households to individuals of different age categories as ITNs are lost or damaged and as new ITNs are obtained. The study also explored how ITN allocation affects ITN durability. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey and ITN durability study was conducted among 2,875 households across Tanzania to determine the proportion of nets that remain protective (serviceable) 22 months after net distribution aiming for universal coverage. Allocation of study nets within houses, and re-allocation of ITNs when new universal replacement campaign (URC) nets arrived in study households in Musoma District, was also assessed. RESULTS: Some 57.0% (95% CI 53.9-60.1%) of households had sufficient ITNs for every household member, while 84.4% (95% CI 82.4-86.4%) of the population had access to an ITN within their household (assuming 1 net covers every 2 members). In households with sufficient nets, 77.5% of members slept under ITNs. In households without sufficient nets, pregnant women (54.6%), children < 5 years (45.8%) and adults (42.1%) were prioritized, with fewer school-age children 5-14 years (35.9%), youths 15-24 years (28.1%) and seniors > 65 years (32.6%) sleeping under ITNs. Crowding ([Formula: see text] 3 people sleeping under nets) was twice as common among people residing in houses without sufficient nets for all age groups, apart from children < 5. Nets were less likely to be serviceable if: [Formula: see text] 3 people slept under them (OR 0.50 (95% CI 0.40-0.63)), or if nets were used by school-age children (OR 0.72 (95% CI 0.56-0.93)), or if the net product was Olyset®. One month after the URC, only 23.6% (95% CI 16.7-30.6%) of the population had access to a URC ITN in Musoma district. Householders in Musoma district continued the use of old ITNs even with the arrival of new URC nets. CONCLUSION: Users determined the useful life of ITNs and prioritized pregnant women and children < 5 to serviceable ITNs. When household net access declines, users adjust by crowding under remaining nets, which further reduces ITN lifespan. School-age children that commonly harbour gametocytes that mediate malaria transmission are compelled to sleep under unserviceable nets, crowd under nets or remain uncovered. However, they were accommodated by the arrival of new nets. More frequent ITN delivery through the school net programme in combination with mass distribution campaigns is essential to maximize ITN effectiveness.

Describing the current status of Plasmodium falciparum population structure and drug resistance within mainland Tanzania using molecular inversion probes.

High-throughput Plasmodium genomic data is increasingly useful in assessing prevalence of clinically important mutations and malaria transmission patterns. Understanding parasite diversity is important for identification of specific human or parasite populations that can be targeted by control programmes, and to monitor the spread of mutations associated with drug resistance. An up-to-date understanding of regional parasite population dynamics is also critical to monitor the impact of control efforts. However, this data is largely absent from high-burden nations in Africa, and to date, no such analysis has been conducted for malaria parasites in Tanzania countrywide. To this end, over 1,000 P. falciparum clinical isolates were collected in 2017 from 13 sites in seven administrative regions across Tanzania, and parasites were genotyped at 1,800 variable positions genome-wide using molecular inversion probes. Population structure was detectable among Tanzanian P. falciparum parasites, approximately separating parasites from the northern and southern districts and identifying genetically admixed populations in the north. Isolates from nearby districts were more likely to be genetically related compared to parasites sampled from more distant districts. Known drug resistance mutations were seen at increased frequency in northern districts (including two infections carrying pfk13-R561H), and additional variants with undetermined significance for antimalarial resistance also varied by geography. Malaria Indicator Survey (2017) data corresponded with genetic findings, including average region-level complexity-of-infection and malaria prevalence estimates. The parasite populations identified here provide important information on extant spatial patterns of genetic diversity of Tanzanian parasites, to which future surveys of genetic relatedness can be compared.

Community-based surveys for Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions in selected regions of mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are effective and widely used for the detection of wild-type Plasmodium falciparum infections. Although recent studies have reported false negative HRP2 RDT results due to pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions in different countries, there is a paucity of data on the deletions of these genes in Tanzania. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted between July and November 2017 in four regions: Geita, Kigoma, Mtwara and Ruvuma. All participants had microscopy and RDT performed in the field and provided a blood sample for laboratory multiplex antigen detection (for Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase, aldolase, and P. falciparum HRP2). Samples showing RDT false negativity or aberrant relationship of HRP2 to pan-Plasmodium antigens were genotyped to detect the presence/absence of pfhrp2/3 genes. RESULTS: Of all samples screened by the multiplex antigen assay (n = 7543), 2417 (32.0%) were positive for any Plasmodium antigens while 5126 (68.0%) were negative for all antigens. The vast majority of the antigen positive samples contained HRP2 (2411, 99.8%), but 6 (0.2%) had only pLDH and/or aldolase without HRP2. Overall, 13 samples had an atypical relationship between a pan-Plasmodium antigen and HRP2, but were positive by PCR. An additional 16 samples with negative HRP2 RDT results but P. falciparum positive by microscopy were also chosen for pfhrp2/3 genotyping. The summation of false negative RDT results and laboratory antigen results provided 35 total samples with confirmed P. falciparum DNA for pfhrp2/3 genotyping. Of the 35 samples, 4 (11.4%) failed to consistently amplify positive control genes; pfmsp1 and pfmsp2 and were excluded from the analysis. The pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes were successfully amplified in the remaining 31 (88.6%) samples, confirming an absence of deletions in these genes. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that P. falciparum parasites in the study area have no deletions of both pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes. Although single gene deletions could have been missed by the multiplex antigen assay, the findings support the continued use of HRP2-based RDTs in Tanzania for routine malaria diagnosis. There is a need for the surveillance to monitor the status of pfhrp2 and/or pfhrp3 deletions in the future.

Sub-national stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania: a simplified assembly of survey and routine data.

BACKGROUND: Recent malaria control efforts in mainland Tanzania have led to progressive changes in the prevalence of malaria infection in children, from 18.1% (2008) to 7.3% (2017). As the landscape of malaria transmission changes, a sub-national stratification becomes crucial for optimized cost-effective implementation of interventions. This paper describes the processes, data and outputs of the approach used to produce a simplified, pragmatic malaria risk stratification of 184 councils in mainland Tanzania. METHODS: Assemblies of annual parasite incidence and fever test positivity rate for the period 2016-2017 as well as confirmed malaria incidence and malaria positivity in pregnant women for the period 2015-2017 were obtained from routine district health information software. In addition, parasite prevalence in school children (PfPR5to16) were obtained from the two latest biennial council representative school malaria parasitaemia surveys, 2014-2015 and 2017. The PfPR5to16 served as a guide to set appropriate cut-offs for the other indicators. For each indicator, the maximum value from the past 3 years was used to allocate councils to one of four risk groups: very low (< 1%PfPR5to16), low (1- < 5%PfPR5to16), moderate (5- < 30%PfPR5to16) and high (≥ 30%PfPR5to16). Scores were assigned to each risk group per indicator per council and the total score was used to determine the overall risk strata of all councils. RESULTS: Out of 184 councils, 28 were in the very low stratum (12% of the population), 34 in the low stratum (28% of population), 49 in the moderate stratum (23% of population) and 73 in the high stratum (37% of population). Geographically, most of the councils in the low and very low strata were situated in the central corridor running from the north-east to south-west parts of the country, whilst the areas in the moderate to high strata were situated in the north-west and south-east regions. CONCLUSION: A stratification approach based on multiple routine and survey malaria information was developed. This pragmatic approach can be rapidly reproduced without the use of sophisticated statistical methods, hence, lies within the scope of national malaria programmes across Africa.

Sustaining LLIN coverage with continuous distribution: the school net programme in Tanzania.

Most malaria-endemic countries have struggled in the past decade to establish effective national-scale continuous distribution mechanisms for long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Since the implementation of the Tanzania National Voucher Scheme in 2004 and mass-distribution campaigns in 2009-2011 and 2015-2016, Tanzania has been committed to finding new and innovative ways of achieving and maintaining universal bed net coverage. Planning for the School Net Programme (SNP) began in 2011 and in 2013, the country piloted a SNP in three regions. Nets were distributed annually to children attending schools in selected primary and secondary grades. Intra-family re-distribution was assumed, and hence the family as a whole, rather than just the children themselves, were the targeted beneficiaries. The programme has since expanded to 14 regions and has seen six rounds of annual distribution. In its fifth year, 3 million nets were distributed at a cost of USD 3.64 per net and USD 0.60 per person-year of protection (including the net). ITN access and use were maintained at a high level (~ 50-75%) over the first 4 years of distribution within selected evaluation areas, even in the absence of a mass distribution event. Net distribution through primary schools has proven to be a feasible and effective strategy for maintaining consistently high coverage in Tanzania.

Costs of insecticide-treated bed net distribution systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most cost-effective measures for preventing malaria. The World Health Organization recommends both large-scale mass distribution campaigns and continuous distributions (CD) as part of a multifaceted strategy to achieve and sustain universal access to ITNs. A combination of these strategies has been effective for scaling up ITN access. For policy makers to make informed decisions on how to efficiently implement CD or combined strategies, information on the costs and cost-effectiveness of these delivery systems is necessary, but relatively few published studies of the cost continuous distribution systems exist. METHODS: To address the gap in continuous distribution cost data, four types of delivery systems-CD through antenatal care services (ANC) and the expanded programme on immunization (EPI) (Ghana, Mali, and mainland Tanzania), CD through schools (Ghana and mainland Tanzania), and a combined community/health facility-based distribution (Zanzibar, Tanzania), as well as mass distributions (Mali)-were costed. Data on costs were collected retrospectively from financial and operational records, stakeholder interviews, and resource use surveys. RESULTS: Overall, from a full provider perspective, mass distributions and continuous systems delivered ITNs at overlapping economic costs per net distributed (mass distributions: 4.37-4.61 USD, CD channels: 3.56-9.90 USD), with two of the school-based systems and the mass distributions at the lower end of this range. From the perspective of international donors, the costs of the CD systems were, for the most part, less costly than the mass distributions (mass distributions: 4.34-4.55 USD, Ghana and Tanzania 2017 school-based: 3.30-3.69 USD, health facility-based: 3.90-4.55 USD, combined community/health facility 4.55 USD). The 2015 school-based distribution (7.30 USD) and 2016 health facility-based distribution (6.52 USD) programmes in Tanzania were an exception. Mass distributions were more heavily financed by donors, while CD relied more extensively on domestic resource contributions. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that CD strategies can continue to deliver nets at a comparable cost to mass distributions, especially from the perspective of the donor.

Applied mathematical modelling to inform national malaria policies, strategies and operations in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: More than ever, it is crucial to make the best use of existing country data, and analytical tools for developing malaria control strategies as the heterogeneity in malaria risk within countries is increasing, and the available malaria control tools are expanding while large funding gaps exist. Global and local policymakers, as well as funders, increasingly recognize the value of mathematical modelling as a strategic tool to support decision making. This case study article describes the long-term use of modelling in close collaboration with the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) in Tanzania, the challenges encountered and lessons learned. CASE DESCRIPTION: In Tanzania, a recent rebound in prevalence led to the revision of the national malaria strategic plan with interventions targeted to the malaria risk at the sub-regional level. As part of the revision, a mathematical malaria modelling framework for setting specific predictions was developed and used between 2016 and 2019 to (1) reproduce setting specific historical malaria trends, and (2) to simulate in silico the impact of future interventions. Throughout the project, multiple stakeholder workshops were attended and the use of mathematical modelling interactively discussed. EVALUATION: In Tanzania, the model application created an interdisciplinary and multisectoral dialogue platform between modellers, NMCP and partners and contributed to the revision of the national malaria strategic plan by simulating strategies suggested by the NMCP. The uptake of the modelling outputs and sustained interest by the NMCP were critically associated with following factors: (1) effective sensitization to the NMCP, (2) regular and intense communication, (3) invitation for the modellers to participate in the strategic plan process, and (4) model application tailored to the local context. CONCLUSION: Empirical data analysis and its use for strategic thinking remain the cornerstone for evidence-based decision-making. Mathematical impact modelling can support the process both by unifying all stakeholders in one strategic process and by adding new key evidence required for optimized decision-making. However, without a long-standing partnership, it will be much more challenging to sensibilize programmes to the usefulness and sustained use of modelling and local resources within the programme or collaborating research institutions need to be mobilized.

Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: The decision-making process for malaria control and elimination strategies has become more challenging. Interventions need to be targeted at council level to allow for changing malaria epidemiology and an increase in the number of possible interventions. Models of malaria dynamics can support this process by simulating potential impacts of multiple interventions in different settings and determining appropriate packages of interventions for meeting specific expected targets. METHODS: The OpenMalaria model of malaria dynamics was calibrated for all 184 councils in mainland Tanzania using data from malaria indicator surveys, school parasitaemia surveys, entomological surveillance, and vector control deployment data. The simulations were run for different transmission intensities per region and five interventions, currently or potentially included in the National Malaria Strategic Plan, individually and in combination. The simulated prevalences were fitted to council specific prevalences derived from geostatistical models to obtain council specific predictions of the prevalence and number of cases between 2017 and 2020. The predictions were used to evaluate in silico the feasibility of the national target of reaching a prevalence of below 1% by 2020, and to suggest alternative intervention stratifications for the country. RESULTS: The historical prevalence trend was fitted for each council with an agreement of 87% in 2016 (95%CI: 0.84-0.90) and an agreement of 90% for the historical trend (2003-2016) (95%CI: 0.87-0.93) The current national malaria strategy was expected to reduce the malaria prevalence between 2016 and 2020 on average by 23.8% (95% CI: 19.7%-27.9%) if current case management levels were maintained, and by 52.1% (95% CI: 48.8%-55.3%) if the case management were improved. Insecticide treated nets and case management were the most cost-effective interventions, expected to reduce the prevalence by 25.0% (95% CI: 19.7%-30.2) and to avert 37 million cases between 2017 and 2020. Mass drug administration was included in most councils in the stratification selected for meeting the national target at minimal costs, expected to reduce the prevalence by 77.5% (95%CI: 70.5%-84.5%) and to avert 102 million cases, with almost twice higher costs than those of the current national strategy. In summary, the model suggested that current interventions are not sufficient to reach the national aim of a prevalence of less than 1% by 2020 and a revised strategic plan needs to consider additional, more effective interventions, especially in high transmission areas and that the targets need to be revisited. CONCLUSION: The methodology reported here is based on intensive interactions with the NMCP and provides a helpful tool for assessing the feasibility of country specific targets and for determining which intervention stratifications at sub-national level will have most impact. This country-led application could support strategic planning of malaria control in many other malaria endemic countries.

The potential of pregnant women as a sentinel population for malaria surveillance.

BACKGROUND: With increasing spatial heterogeneity of malaria transmission and a shift of the disease burden towards older children and adults, pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) have been proposed as a pragmatic sentinel population for malaria surveillance. However, the representativeness of routine ANC malaria test-positivity and its relationship with prevalence in other population subgroups are yet to be investigated. METHODS: Monthly ANC malaria test-positivity data from all Tanzanian health facilities for January 2014 to May 2016 was compared to prevalence data from the School Malaria Parasitaemia Survey 2015, the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) 2015/16, the Malaria Atlas Project 2015, and a Bayesian model fitted to MIS data. Linear regression was used to describe the difference between malaria test-positivity in pregnant women and respective comparison groups as a function of ANC test-positivity and potential covariates. RESULTS: The relationship between ANC test-positivity and survey prevalence in children follows spatially and biologically meaningful patterns. However, the uncertainty of the relationship was substantial, particularly in areas with high or perennial transmission. In comparison, modelled data estimated higher prevalence in children at low transmission intensities and lower prevalence at higher transmission intensities. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women attending ANC are a pragmatic sentinel population to assess heterogeneity and trends in malaria prevalence in Tanzania. Yet, since ANC malaria test-positivity cannot be used to directly predict the prevalence in other population subgroups, complementary community-level measurements remain highly relevant.

Estimating malaria burden among pregnant women using data from antenatal care centres in Tanzania: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: More timely estimates of malaria prevalence are needed to inform optimal control strategies and measure progress. Since 2014, Tanzania has implemented nationwide malaria screening for all pregnant women within the antenatal care system. We aimed to compare malaria test results during antenatal care to two population-based prevalence surveys in Tanzanian children aged 6-59 months to examine their potential in measuring malaria trends and progress towards elimination. METHODS: Malaria test results from pregnant women screened at their first antenatal care visits at health-care facilities (private and public) in all 184 districts of Tanzania between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2017, were collected from the Health Management Information Systems and District Health Information System 2. We excluded facilities with no recorded antenatal care attendees during the time period. We standardised results to account for testing uptake and weighted them by the timing of two population-based surveys of childhood malaria prevalence done in 2015-16 (Demographic and Health Survey) and 2017 (Malaria Indicator Survey). We assessed regional-level correlation using Spearman's coefficient and assessed the consistency of monthly district-level prevalence ranking using Kendall's correlation coefficient. FINDINGS: Correlation between malaria prevalence at antenatal care and among children younger than 5 years was high (r≥0·83 for both surveys), although declines in prevalence at antenatal care were generally smaller than among children. Consistent heterogeneity (p<0·05) in antenatal care prevalence at the district level was evident in all but one region (Kilimanjaro). Data from antenatal care showed declining prevalence in three regions (Arusha, Kilimanjaro, and Manyara) where surveys estimated zero prevalence. INTERPRETATION: Routine antenatal care-based screening can be used to assess heterogeneity in transmission at finer resolution than population-based surveys, and provides sample sizes powered to detect changes, notably in areas of low transmission where surveys lack power. Declines in prevalence at antenatal care might lag behind those among children, highlighting the value of monitoring burden and continuing prevention efforts among pregnant women as transmission declines. The pregnancy-specific benefits and cost-effectiveness of antenatal care-based screening remain to be assessed. FUNDING: None.

Efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria and prevalence of Pfk13 and Pfmdr1 polymorphisms after a decade of using artemisinin-based combination therapy in mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends regular therapeutic efficacy studies (TES) to monitor the performance of first and second-line anti-malarials. In 2016, efficacy and safety of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria were assessed through a TES conducted between April and October 2016 at four sentinel sites of Kibaha, Mkuzi, Mlimba, and Ujiji in Tanzania. The study also assessed molecular markers of artemisinin and lumefantrine (partner drug) resistance. METHODS: Eligible patients were enrolled at the four sites, treated with standard doses of AL, and monitored for 28 days with clinical and laboratory assessments. The main outcomes were PCR corrected cure rates, day 3 positivity rates, safety of AL, and prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum kelch 13 (Pfk13) (codon positions: 440-600) and P. falciparum multi-drug resistance 1 (Pfmdr1) genes (codons: N86Y, Y184F and D1246Y), markers of artemisinin and lumefantrine resistance, respectively. RESULTS: Of 344 patients enrolled, three withdrew, six were lost to follow-up; and results were analysed for 335 (97.4%) patients. Two patients had treatment failure (one early treatment failure and one recrudescent infection) after PCR correction, yielding an adequate clinical and parasitological response of > 98%. Day 3 positivity rates ranged from 0 to 5.7%. Common adverse events included cough, abdominal pain, vomiting, and diarrhoea. Two patients had serious adverse events; one died after the first dose of AL and another required hospitalization after the second dose of AL (on day 0) but recovered completely. Of 344 samples collected at enrolment (day 0), 92.7% and 100% were successfully sequenced for Pfk13 and Pfmdr1 genes, respectively. Six (1.9%) had non-synonymous mutations in Pfk13, none of which had been previously associated with artemisinin resistance. For Pfmdr1, the NFD haplotype (codons N86, 184F and D1246) was detected in 134 (39.0%) samples; ranging from 33.0% in Mlimba to 45.5% at Mkuzi. The difference among the four sites was not significant (p = 0.578). All samples had a single copy of the Pfmdr1 gene. CONCLUSION: The study indicated high efficacy of AL and the safety profile was consistent with previous reports. There were no known artemisinin-resistance Pfk13 mutations, but there was a high prevalence of a Pfmdr1 haplotype associated with reduced sensitivity to lumefantrine (but no reduced efficacy was observed in the subjects). Continued TES and monitoring of markers of resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs is critical for early detection of resistant parasites and to inform evidence-based malaria treatment policies. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03387631.

High cure rates and tolerability of artesunate-amodiaquine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Kibaha and Kigoma, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The Tanzanian National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) and its partners have been implementing regular therapeutic efficacy studies (TES) to monitor the performance of different drugs used or with potential use in Tanzania. However, most of the recent TES focused on artemether-lumefantrine, which is the first-line anti-malarial for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Data on the performance of other artemisinin-based combinations is urgently needed to support timely review and changes of treatment guidelines in case of drug resistance to the current regimen. This study was conducted at two NMCP sentinel sites (Kibaha, Pwani and Ujiji, Kigoma) to assess the efficacy and safety of artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), which are the current alternative artemisinin-based combinations in Tanzania. METHODS: This was a single-arm prospective evaluation of the clinical and parasitological responses of ASAQ and DP for directly observed treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria. Children aged 6 months to 10 years and meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled and treated with either ASAQ or DP. In each site, patients were enrolled sequentially; thus, enrolment of patients for the assessment of one artemisinin-based combination was completed before patients were recruited for assessment of the second drugs. Follow-up was done for 28 or 42 days for ASAQ and DP, respectively. The primary outcome was PCR corrected cure rates while the secondary outcome was occurrence of adverse events (AEs) or serious adverse events (SAEs). RESULTS: Of the 724 patients screened at both sites, 333 (46.0%) were enrolled and 326 (97.9%) either completed the 28/42 days of follow-up, or attained any of the treatment outcomes. PCR uncorrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) for DP on day 42 was 98.8% and 75.9% at Kibaha and Ujiji, respectively. After PCR correction, DP's ACPR was 100% at both sites. For ASAQ, no parasite recurrence occurred giving 100% ACPR on day 28. Only one patient in the DP arm (1.1%) from Ujiji had parasites on day 3. Of the patients recruited (n = 333), 175 (52.6%) had AEs with 223 episodes (at both sites) in the two treatment groups. There was no SAE and the commonly reported AE episodes (with > 5%) included, cough, running nose, abdominal pain, diarrhoea and fever. CONCLUSION: Both artemisinin-based combinations had high cure rates with PCR corrected ACPR of 100%. The two drugs had adequate safety with no SAE and all AEs were mild, and not associated with the anti-malarials. Continued TES is critical to monitor the performance of nationally recommended artemisinin-based combination therapy and supporting evidence-based review of malaria treatment policies. Trial registration This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT03431714.

Application of community-based and integrated strategy to reduce malaria disease burden in southern Tanzania: the study protocol of China-UK-Tanzania pilot project on malaria control.

BACKGROUND: During the past six decades, remarkable success on malaria control has been made in China. The major experience could be shared with other malaria endemic countries including Tanzania with high malaria burden. Especially, China's 1-3-7 model for malaria elimination is one of the most important refined experiences from many years' efforts and key innovation measures for malaria elimination in China. METHODS: The China-UK-Tanzania pilot project on malaria control was implemented from April, 2015 to June, 2018, which was an operational research with two communities receiving the proposed interventions and two comparable communities serving as control sites. The World Health Organization "Test, Treat, Track" (WHO-T3) Initiative, which calls for every suspected case to receive a diagnostic test, every confirmed case to be treated, and for the disease to be tracked, was integrated with Chinese experiences on malaria control and elimination for exploration of a proper model tailored to the local settings. Application of China's 1-3-7 model integrating with WHO-T3 initiative and local resources aiming at reducing the burden of malaria in terms of morbidity and mortality by 30% in the intervention communities in comparison with that at the baseline survey. DISCUSSION: The China-UK-Tanzania pilot project on malaria control was that at China's first pilot project on malaria control in Africa, exploring the feasibility of Chinese experiences by China-Africa collaboration, which is expected that the strategies and approaches used in this project could be potential for scaling up in Tanzania and African countries, and contribute to the acceleration of malaria control and elimination in Africa.